Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Experimental Infection of Richardson’s Ground Squirrels (Spermophilus Richardsonii ) With Attenuated and Virulent Strains pf Brucella abortus

A previous investigation of the safety of Brucella abortus strain RB51 (sRB51) in various nontarget species suggested that Richardson’s ground squirrels (Spermophilus richardsonii) may develop persistent infections when orally inoculated with the vaccine. In the present study, sRB51, B. abortus strain 19 (s19), and virulent B. abortus strain 9941 (s9941) were administered orally to Richardson’s ground squirrels to further characterize B. abortus infection in this species. Six groups of nongravid ground squirrels were orally inoculated with 6x108 colony forming units (cfu) sRB51 (n=10), 2.5x104 cfu s19 (n=10), 2.5x107 cfu s19 (n=6), 1.3x106 cfu s9941 (n=5), 2.1x108 cfu s9941 (n=5), or vaccine diluent (control; n=4). One of five animals in the lower-dose s19 group and two of three animals in the higher-dose s19 group showed persistence of bacteria in various tissues at 14 wk post-inoculation (PI). At 18 wk PI, one of five animals in the sRB51 group and one of five animals in the high-dose s9941 group were culture positive. Although we did detect some persistence of B. abortus strains at 18 wk, we found no evidence of pathology caused by B. abortus strains in nonpregnant Richardson’s ground squirrels based on clinical signs, gross lesions, and microscopic lesions.